Wednesday 22 July 2009

Can you believe it? I can't...

Two junior football clubs, Diggers Rest and Rockbank, have been banned playing footy this weekend due to a brawl which occurred at an UNDER 12's footy match last weekend??

I believe it was the president of the Diggers Rest club who said that they and their coach's felt as though they had been punished before the investigation had concluded????

Further, it has been alleged that both players (10 and 11 year olds) AND PARENTS were involved!!!

Who are these people???

Banned? Without having all the facts, on face value the clubs should be removed for the rest of the season, and possibly from the league indefinitely. If my kid played for a club and this happened, it'd be the last time he played for them - UNDER 12's.

I'm not being funny, or a bleeding heart, or soft - but these are kids! They're still playing restricted rules for gods sake!

Unbelievable!

Thursday 9 July 2009

So the 2008/09 financial year and finished, and a new one has begun, and what a time to be alive as we watch the world changing at a faster pace than ever before.

A couple of days ago we heard an uproar from the unions, government oppositions, and surprisingly (or not) the government themselves as the Fair Pay Commission decided against imposing a mandatory pay increase for workers on the minimum wage.

Fair enough the unions and the opposition political parties - the government one I thought was a bit cheap considering if they felt workers should get an increase then they have the power to do so. They don't because it would be economically irresponsible to do so - during times of uncertainty why would a government purposely put pressure of businesses fighting to stay afloat or keep in touch with the break even line? After all the pressure on the economy is worsened by people out of work.

So in an attempt to keep the wolves at bay, I think ultimately it's the right thin to do.

As that kicks off the new FY, what else will be in store?

GM in the US has gone broke, Pacific Brands moved offshore after not so long ago upgrading their plant equipment, Haymes Manuals sell their manufacturing plant and rights. then on the other hand we see the likes of Woolworths renovating old stores, and building new ones. and the head of Macquarrie taking the largest pay cut in Australian corporate history that went into the $20 millions!

Speaking to small business, there's a mixed attitude to the state of play, some are busier than ever and others frightfully quiet.

This business with the recession is some what like the argument of global warming, some say it's real and others don't.

My view is that although technically a recession is two concurrent quarters of negative growth, after years of positing 5% increases, if we posted a negative growth of .5% - aren't we just back where we were 6 months or less ago?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's no big deal - just not as big a deal as the media would have us believe. I base my belief on the fact that it's us that makes the difference. if we decide that we should squirrel our cash away, and don't buy our Friday night pizza, and our beers to watch the tellie, or don't go to the movies, hold off getting the car serviced until next month, don't get the blocked pipes dealt with - basically stop spending - then it's us that have caused it.

On the other hand (and can be seen in the retail postings) we can see that whilst we're spending at the shops, then the recession doesn't happen.

I'm not saying no company will go broke because they will - even in an economic boom companies fall over and the micro reasons are vast, but at the end of the day they ultimately fall over due to poor management decisions.

The CEO of Woolworths Australia came out and said (in response to Pacific Brands shutting up manufacturing locally and going to Asia) that good management was about managing the business in good times, and placing their business in a position so as to be able to weather the bad times - obviously something PB didn't do.

So what's going to happen? who knows, I'm not a economic guru, and I don't read the papers that much - but I couldn't let that stop me... :)

I foresee over the next 12-18 months, one or two major car manufacturers file for bankruptcy to be picked up by the real big guys like Ta Ta. Rio Tinto to close down operations in China.

In general terms, I think we'll see companies that we never expected to go bust, go bust and the rise of the super company to spring up.

I think there will be a growth in high-tech manufacturing, and a fall in manufacturing activity of day to day consumables.

Where the recession will hit home globally will be in Asia, as they traditionally have higher growth rates than western, more conservative, countries and the fall will hurt the most - no doubt causing a few civil wars throughout the region.

I believe, Victoria at least, will somewhat be buffered by the building activity which is about to be undertaken in bushfire effected areas from Black Saturday which will not only equal but surpass the impact that the K Rudd stimulus package had on the country.

Taking note from the past, when Ash Wednesday occurred, the construction that took place to rebuild there helped during those hard times, and although harder times now, we've got a significantly increased volume of rebuilding to be undertaken which will help everyone, manufacturers, unemployed, retail, you name it.



The biggest thing that I think will be effected is communication, and the way businesses communicate with one another, and internal and external staff - it's a time for reality checks, and opportunities for companies to take an inward look at cost and revenue leakage and for us I think we'll see companies for whom SMS is new to them taking up and feeling the positive benefits of it within their business as costing issues from telco's are relieved some, staff improve on efficiency and customers feel the benefits of quick sharp and to the point communications.


It really is an interesting time to be alive, and yes there will be casualties and hardship, and even I'm not immune personally to that, but as my dad says, a problem is an opportunity for change, and change is exactly what's about to happen for all and sundry.

Have a great day.

Cheers,
C